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India's E-Commerce Set to Hit $300 Billion by 2030: BCG-IAMAI

CIO Insider Team | Tuesday, 24 February, 2026
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India's e-commerce industry is transitioning into a new stage characterized by the collaboration between online and offline retail, rather than competition. Consumers now effortlessly transition between different shopping platforms, conducting research online before making purchases in physical stores, and vice versa, depending on factors like convenience, trust, and necessity.

The conclusions drawn in a recent publication by Boston Consulting Group (BCG) titled "$300 Billion Connected Commerce: How Clicks and Bricks Are Shaping the Future of E-Commerce in India" are based on a comprehensive study involving over 12,000 participants from both urban and rural areas of the country, as well as thorough examination of the industry.

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India's e-commerce market is currently valued at between $120-140 billion, with forecasts indicating that it could reach $280-300 billion by the year 2030. Despite this significant projected growth, e-commerce still only accounts for a small fraction of total consumer spending, estimated at 7-8 percent.

Meanwhile, offline retail continues to show resilience, expanding at an impressive annual rate of 13-14 percent over the last four years. Multi-channel shopping has become the standard among consumers, with half of offline shoppers utilizing online platforms for research and information gathering.

The impact of e-commerce on the consumer decision process is growing, shaping the stages of discovery, comparison, and confidence leading up to the final purchase. Online and offline channels are working together to create a unified commerce ecosystem that consumers anticipate brands and platforms to seamlessly deliver.

Parul Bajaj, India Leader of Marketing, Sales, and Pricing Practice at BCG, shared insights on the report's discoveries. She emphasized the evolving nature of retail in India towards a multi-channel framework. Bajaj cautioned against treating online and offline platforms as distinct strategies, as this approach may hinder progress.

Instead, she advocated for integrating both channels to accelerate growth, drive innovation, and achieve superior financial results. Bajaj highlighted the importance of orchestrating seamless consumer journeys across various formats to maintain a competitive edge.

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India currently boasts almost 300 million internet users who engage in online shopping, with estimates projecting a significant increase to 440 million by the year 2030. The adoption of e-commerce is growing exponentially, with a particular surge expected in smaller cities and among middle-income demographics. Approximately 30 percent of online shoppers in India hail from rural areas.

Furthermore, consumers in the country appreciate e-commerce for more than just discounts and convenience, as they value the increased variety and information available that aid them in making informed purchasing decisions. Roughly 45 percent of digital shoppers are women. For many female consumers, e-commerce provides more than just a convenient shopping experience.

Online and offline channels are working together to create a unified commerce ecosystem that consumers anticipate brands and platforms to seamlessly deliver.

Nearly two-thirds of women who shop online express a sense of security, attributing this feeling to factors such as privacy, ease of access, and the ability to shop independently and at their convenience. Specialized platforms currently make up more than 60 percent of internet expenditures, with conventional broad marketplaces making up less than 30 percent in comparison. New types of platforms are increasingly becoming popular.

Quick commerce has experienced a growth rate of over 100 percent annually, leading to instant and supplementary shopping becoming widely adopted and increasing the frequency of purchases. Social and chat commerce, with a growth rate of 40-45 percent annually, are attracting new users to the online realm, especially from smaller cities like Tier 2 and Tier 3, where trust and conversation-based purchasing are crucial components.

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Consumers are now selecting platforms based on particular shopping objectives instead of solely considering the range of products offered. This shift is evident in the behavior of new online shoppers who typically begin with a single platform, while experienced shoppers utilize five or more different online formats.

The landscape of Indian commerce has been transformed by the rise of e-commerce, altering the way businesses in the country expand and vie for market share. Companies that engage in online sales experience accelerated growth, heightened levels of innovation, and improved financial performance.

Small enterprises, including Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs), as well as artisans and farmers, are experiencing advantages due to minimal obstacles to beginning operations, chances to experiment, gain knowledge, and expand rapidly through streamlined business practices. Nearly 90 percent of small-scale digital merchants have noted an increase in sales, leading to an expansion in workforce and the ability to access nationwide markets with reduced expenses.



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